OFFICIAL TS/Hurricane Sandy Thread

[SageVigiles 1,194]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031908.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The latest from NHC as of 11:00PM tonight.

Looks like no bueno.

[Remember585 815]

Where does Sandy compare to previous storms such as Floyd and Irene?

[stvrap79 8]

Where does Sandy compare to previous storms such as Floyd and Irene?

I recently read an article (trying to find the link) that says these hurricanes will be minor in comparison to Sandy. The likelihood that it will merge with another system will potentially produce a "perfect storm." Let's keep our fingers crossed this is not the case!!

[61MACKBR1 222]

If Sandy is worse that Irene, then the areas of Northeast Yonkers and the Village of Bronxville will get hit very bad. During Irene, the areas around Palmer Road and Paxton Avenue in Bronxville and Palmer Road between Bronxville Road and the Bronx River Parkway in Yonkers will be very vunerable to considerable flooding.

http://www.yonkersny...9&recordid=1225

http://www.yonkersny...9&recordid=1225

[50-65 205]

Anyone familar with airport operations? My wife is supposed to be flying from Florida to Westchester on Monday morning. How much rain/wind will they fly in?

On another note, how many of you have employers that support you as volunteers? When talking about the storm at work, one of the guys who is a volunteer FF said he might not be in Monday/Tuesday. He was told that if he didn't come in, not to show up the rest of the week either.

Got an earlier flight to come in Sunday evening.

As far as work goes. I work outside. Should be interesting.

[x4093k 654]

Got an earlier flight to come in Sunday evening.

As far as work goes. I work outside. Should be interesting.

Make sure you have your rain coat.. think your going to need it...

[PFDRes47cue 653]

Anyone hear anything in terms of potential school closures?

Stay safe everyone.

[50-65 205]

Make sure you have your rain coat.. think your going to need it...

Good thing I have a crane on my truck, I can hoist myself out of the water !

I haven't heard anything about tornado threat that usually comes with hurricanes. Anyone saying anything about that?

[jack10562 414]

Anyone hear anything in terms of potential school closures?

Stay safe everyone.

I'd guess a lot has to do with where this storm hits. Even with a predicted southern NJ landfall, heavy wind and rain effects will be felt for several hundred miles around the center.

Once tropical storm conditions (sustained winds >39MPH) are imminent, as observed by the National Weather Service, local districts need to make a hard decision if it's going to be too dangerous for students and staff to be out and about traveling to and from school due to wind and possible flooding.

NY City Transit is already planning on shutting their systems down to protect the riding public, their staff and equipment should tropical storm conditions and flooding become apparent.

And I'll echo Madison: Stay safe everyone!

[helicopper 1,050]

Where does Sandy compare to previous storms such as Floyd and Irene?

Interesting question so I did a little research...

A few storms have hit us especially hard including Floyd, Irene, the unnamed storm of 1938, Donna, and the Nor'Easter in 1992. The tracks of Irene and Floyd were very different from Sandy; they both moved up the coast where Sandy appears to be taking a track more like the 1938 storm (which was about category 5) for a direct hit on the DelMarVa Peninsula. Definitely not good news for them but we're still well within the tropical storm wind cone and will also receive heavy rain and wind.

(Irene is the other track along the coast with Floyd and Donna, the tag got cut off.)

Intensity wise, Irene hit the metro area as a hurricane before weakening as it moved inland. See the track here: http://www.nhc.noaa....loop_5NLW.shtml

Irene was a big storm too. The satellite image shows Irene to be almost one third of the size of the U.S. east coast. The distance from Augusta, Maine to Miami, Florida is 1662.55 miles. Hurricane Irene's tropical storm force winds extended 255 miles from the center making Irene 510 miles in diameter, almost one-third the size of the U.S. Hurricane-force winds extend 70 miles from the center, or 140 miles in diameter.

Sandy is also really big, and it’s getting bigger. Tropical storm force winds now reach 450 miles out from the center, so at its forward speed of 9 mph, places could experience tropical storm conditions almost 48 hours prior to the arrival of the center. That's a LOT of rain and wind for 2-3 days.

Floyd hit the Carolinas as a strong type 2 hurricane and eventually reached us as a tropical storm. The issue with Floyd was it's size, it was HUGE - much bigger than Andrew, the hurricane that decimated south Florida. Near its eye, Floyd's winds were 130 miles per hour, earning it a Category 3 rating from meteorologists and it was almost twice the size of typical Atlantic hurricanes, Floyd was some 580 miles across and packed tropical storm-force winds (40 to 73 mph) or greater across that entire span.

The big thing that I picked up from all this research; there are so many variables it is hard to really "compare" storms. Water temperature, wind speed, other frontal activity, location, speed, size, lunar cycle, etc. all make it very hard to say one is more or less devastating than another.

Hurricane Sandy is a very large storm and no matter where exactly it hits we're going to feel its punch.

Stay safe!

More on Floyd for those with nothing else to do today - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999floyd.html

[jack10562 414]

Another unknown with this storm is that all the surface conditions occurring simultaneously are historically unprecedented, in other words, have never existed together.

So going with that, the forecast models have no clue as to what is actually going to happen.

We have a monster cyclone moving up the east coast, OK you say, we've been there-done that before.

Now add a blocking high pressure ridge to the east keeping Sandy along the coast, then we have a vigorous jet stream and a powerful cold front that's moving east.

It's not looking pretty.

[firedude 985]

2pm advisory has pushed the storm path a bit north...

Photo from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

Hope everyone preparing, this could get ugly...

[peterose313 345]

Gov. Andrew Cuomo said today that Metro-North and the New York City subways should prepare for an “orderly suspension” of service at 7 p.m. Sunday if Hurricane Sandy continues its expected assault on the East Coast.

Decisions on whether to suspend service will be made Sunday, he said in a press briefing this afternoon.

http://www.lohud.com/viewart/20121027/NEWS/310270074/Cuomo-Metro-North-should-prepare-hurricane-shutdown

[effd3918 34]

MTA to make a decision soon if suspension is needed...MTA Subway/Buses and Metro-North/LIRR will be suspended at 7pm Sunday 10/28 if a decision to suspend is made.

[firedude 985]

Governor Christie Press Briefing In Monmouth County On Hurricane Sandy

https://www.youtube....channel&list=UL

Southern Westchester's Hurricane Evac zone:

Source: Westchester County GIS http://giswww.westchestergov.com/gismap/

Edited October 27, 2012 by firedude

[peterose313 345]

Fairfield has ordered a Mandatory Evacuation of the beach area starting at 12 pm tomorrow (Sunday). There will be an Emergency Shelter setup at Ludlowe High School and is pet friendly.

[SageVigiles 1,194]

Another unknown with this storm is that all the surface conditions occurring simultaneously are historically unprecedented, in other words, have never existed together.

So going with that, the forecast models have no clue as to what is actually going to happen.

We have a monster cyclone moving up the east coast, OK you say, we've been there-done that before.

Now add a blocking high pressure ridge to the east keeping Sandy along the coast, then we have a vigorous jet stream and a powerful cold front that's moving east.

It's not looking pretty.

You forgot the lunar cycle pulling tides up, normally not a huge deal but when added in...

All three FEMA National Incident Management Assistance Teams will be deployed for this storm to NJ, CT and MA.

Its going to be a LONG week my friends...

[peterose313 345]

And yet the National Hurricane Center will NOT be issuing any alerts for a hurricane. A large amount of meteorologists are in strong disagreement with such a choice.

[jack10562 414]

Here's an interesting model run from yesterday, this one shows the storm center swirling around NYC several times! Would make for an interesting day...

Yes, It can still happen!

http://goo.gl/7szNZ

[peterose313 345]

From Joe Rao:

This is the 12Z European Model forecast for Monday morning at 8 a.m. If you interpolate using the forecast map for Tuesday at 8 a.m., then landfall would be either for southern Jersey (Atlantic City/Cape May) or northern Delaware at around 1-3 a.m. Tuesday.

[spin_the_wheel 460]

Something to reflect on should you be involved with evacuations.....be safe all.

http://www.dailyfreeman.com/articles/2012/08/28/news/doc503c1f7194718916273293.txt

[NoWestFF 21]

Anyone hear anything in terms of potential school closures?

Stay safe everyone.

The North Salem Central School District sent an email this evening:

As we all watch the dire storm predictions, it seems likely that we will be closing schools for multiple days. To allow families time to prepare, plan and possibly leave the area for safety, rather than wait until the storm is upon us, by late Sunday morning we will make a decision about Monday and Tuesday.

Given the latest forecast from the National Weather Service and the high wind / flood watches, I doubt many schools will be open on Monday.

[peterose313 345]

From Reed Timmer: Tornado/Storm Chaser: Forecast track of Hurricane Sandy is shifted north slightly, now set to make landfall just south of NYC at the central New Jersey coastline Tuesday morning with 80 mph winds. Minimum central pressure is at 960 mb with some indication of intensification tonight.

[PCFD ENG58 1,085]

The boat marinas of Rye Brook,Harrison,Eastchester, Hartsdale,White Plains and Mount Vernon have removed all boats ! Be safe out there !

[firemoose827 324]

Im working in the EOC right now, storm looks to be hitting the Jersey, NYC area late monday night into early tuesday, large storm surges and heavy rains, tropical winds extending into the hudson valley and upstate further. Could have widespread power outages and lots of flash flooding out there. Keep sharp and stay safe. Ill keep you posted.

[SageVigiles 1,194]

Maps showing an estimated storm surge of at least 7 feet on Long Island Sound from East Haven to Bridgeport or so, then it starts to get into the 11-13 foot range.

[61MACKBR1 222]

FIRST AND FOREMOST - TO OUR EMERGENCY RESPONDERS: "STAY SAFE AND WELL, WHILE YOU ARE OUT THERE PROVIDING ASSISTANCE TO THOSE IN NEED DURING THIS UPCOMING STORM"

I would suspect that some of the Fire Departments in some of the major cities in our area (YONKERS FIRE DEPARTMENT, MOUNT VERNON FD, NEW ROCHELLE FD, WHITE PLAINS FIRE DEPARTMENT) will be bringing in off duty personnel to man reserve and spare fire apparatus to support some of the historically known flood areas in those cities.

Does anyone out there, who are tied to either the YFD, FDMV, NRFD, and WPFD, know what plans they have in place? (such as, for example, say for Yonkers, putting Engine 317, Squad 21 and Ladder 77 in service; in Mount Vernon , putting Spare Engine 1 and Spare Ladder 4 in service, and say for NRFD, putting Engine 19 and Ladder 14 in service)

Any and all information would be appreciated

[excavatorguy 1]

to my friends that are volunteers stay safe and i hope you are not needed good luck

[x4093k 654]

However the weather affects your area, STAY SAFE.

This storm is getting nasty...

[helicopper 1,050]

Rather than have 75 posts for each of the school districts in our area (right there is a reason for consolidation but I digress), please use the following links to determine what schools will be open or closed tomorrow.

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/weather/school-closings/

http://www.whud.com/stormcenter/

http://www.news12.com/articleDetail.jsp?articleId=244420

http://www.wfasstormcenter.net/

These sites will be updating the closures/delays/early dismissals as they occur.

Thank you and stay safe!