OFFICIAL TS/Hurricane Sandy Thread

[bfd34180 11]

hey guys has anyone heard any info or anymore info regarding the possibility of tropical storm sandy hitting our area i know the forcast models ( last i checked) showed it could slam our area or head off to sea, ive also heard it could turn into a snowy type of event. what do you all think about this?

[SKE#2HAHN 18]

if you are on facebook, like Forensic Weather Consultants (Meteorologist Howard Altschule)...he was spot on with Irene and the Halloween storm of last year...he certainly has my attention on this one!

Quoted from Forensic Weather Consultants Facebook page 10/23/12

"The overnight computer models should be quite interesting. My gut feeling is that more model ensembles and solutions will trend closer to the Northeast Coastline. Why? The ECMWF and many of the GEFS ensembles are suggesting a massive storm affecting the Northeast (direct impacts in NJ, NYC, LI and CT). The Operational GFS model seems out to lunch still...but even it has trended a little further west. So, I'll have an update tomorrow morning, but I would not be surprised if more computer models indicate a major storm landfalling in the Northeast next week as a Super-Storm."

"UPDATE: While there is still some chance that this super-storm could go oout to sea, the specialists at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) agree that the Euro is the most reliable and beliveable scenario with this storm. It should most likely be a monstrous Post-Tropical system but with the equivalent strength of a powerful hurricane (just minus the warm core). I suspect that boats and ships will have to completely shut down any traffic from the Carolinas to the Northeast from Sunday through Wednesday as the thought of potential 25-40 Foot Waves is nauseating enough. In addition and highly troubling, is the fact that astronomical high tide and a full moon will occur Sunday Night. This will likely add a couple of feet to the ocean heights along the coast, thus creating a significant and potentially damaging storm surge and erosion in Long Island, CT and MA. Stay tuned."

Edited October 24, 2012 by SKE#2HAHN

[SageVigiles 1,194]

Ugh, I'm 900 miles away from my Emergency Operations Center, naturally this would happen this week.

Fingers crossed that this is a no-go.

[CHIEFPHIL 90]

On the news this am 5 out of 6 models showed it slamming between NJ and Mass. ... Looks like there is a good chance we all might be a little busy later this weekend.

Remember to make sure our families are ok and start prepping for them as well at home.

[eric12401 77]

Snowstorm last Halloween, hurricane this Halloween... I can only imagine what comes next year!

[SSweet88MonteSS 0]

Snowstorm last Halloween, hurricane this Halloween... I can only imagine what comes next year!

Locusts

[x4093k 654]

I hope we get a nice snow storm, honestly lol..

[JackEMT 77]

I saw on the news last night where the Canadian model shows a direct hit on Boston while all the others showed the storm farther east......lol

[firedude 985]

As of this morning, the GFS model (US) shows it going out to sea while the EU Model (European) shows the storm making a direct path towards the NYC area.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYWHzk0gbcM

[PEMO3 523]

It is looking more and more likely that we are going to be on the receiving end of some level of wild weather since as of 11am today 14 of the 20 usual forecast models show the storm turning back toward the northeast, New England or Canada in one way or another. Better keep a close key eye on this one.

[peterose313 345]

Four 'Hurricane Hunter' flights scheduled for today for Hurricane Sandy

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

[eric12401 77]

The GFS now has Sandy recurving and making landfall in Southern Maine.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html

[helicopper 1,050]

The track is going to change every 6 hours with every update from the forecasters and models. Then every meterologist will add their interpretation to impress their viewers so this thread will be as long as the Stamford merger thread if we post every update.

I figure we will either get rain or we won't. :-)

[JetPhoto 626]

Here is a link to a site that provides different weather details and computer predictions:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/

Here is a link to forcasted precipitation which predicts several days of atmospheric predictions:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2012102412_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_PWAT_WINDS

Play around with the different options, it's amazing but remeber this is only one computer model

[ex-commish 490]

As of this morning, the GFS model (US) shows it going out to sea while the EU Model (European) shows the storm making a direct path towards the NYC area.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYWHzk0gbcM

Lets hope the U.S. is right!!!

[peterose313 345]

From News 12 Westchester's Joe Rao:

"Here are the various scenarios: the 12Z European model has Sandy making landfall over the Delmarva Peninsula on Monday morning, then moving northwest to near Williamsport, PA by Tuesday morning. The Navy Model (NOGAPS) has Sandy hitting New York City on Monday morning. The Canadian Global Model brings Sandy to Cape Cod and Boston by Tuesday morning, while the United Kingdom and GFS models both have Sandy scoring a direct hit on coastal Maine on Tuesday night.

Normally you look for consistency among the models, and to this end, the European model has been the best in indicating that Sandy would ultimately curve back to the west and adversely impact the US East Coast, while all the other models pushed her out to sea. Now, however, those other models are coming around to the idea of recurvature back toward the coast. So right now, it would seem that somewhere running in a corridor from the Delmarva coast northeast to coastal Maine, in a time frame lasting from Monday morning to Tuesday evening, major storm system sporting sustained winds of possibly 70 m.p.h. along with torrential/drenching rains is going to hit."

[engine51 10]

From News 12 Westchester's Joe Rao:

"Here are the various scenarios: the 12Z European model has Sandy making landfall over the Delmarva Peninsula on Monday morning, then moving northwest to near Williamsport, PA by Tuesday morning. The Navy Model (NOGAPS) has Sandy hitting New York City on Monday morning. The Canadian Global Model brings Sandy to Cape Cod and Boston by Tuesday morning, while the United Kingdom and GFS models both have Sandy scoring a direct hit on coastal Maine on Tuesday night.

Normally you look for consistency among the models, and to this end, the European model has been the best in indicating that Sandy would ultimately curve back to the west and adversely impact the US East Coast, while all the other models pushed her out to sea. Now, however, those other models are coming around to the idea of recurvature back toward the coast. So right now, it would seem that somewhere running in a corridor from the Delmarva coast northeast to coastal Maine, in a time frame lasting from Monday morning to Tuesday evening, major storm system sporting sustained winds of possibly 70 m.p.h. along with torrential/drenching rains is going to hit."

I wouldnt trust Joe Rao

[peterose313 345]

I wouldnt trust Joe Rao

He's always been fairly accurate and he's just relaying what the models are showing. Dislike him/like him, it doesn't matter. Regardless, it's too early to tell right now what it's going to do. The Hurricane center sent up planes in 4 waves today to study the storm and gather data. We'll get a better idea once that data is analyzed and as it comes closer to the US.

[Disaster_Guy 96]

He's always been fairly accurate and he's just relaying what the models are showing. Dislike him/like him, it doesn't matter. Regardless, it's too early to tell right now what it's going to do. The Hurricane center sent up planes in 4 waves today to study the storm and gather data. We'll get a better idea once that data is analyzed and as it comes closer to the US.

Even once the planes and weather balloons report back their data, the intensity and final direction of the Sandy will all depend on a "deepening upper level low pressure system" (according to the our regional National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlook), which will not necessarily be known until several days from now if not later.

[PFDRes47cue 653]

Snowstorm last Halloween, hurricane this Halloween... I can only imagine what comes next year!

stink bugs

[peterose313 345]

Even once the planes and weather balloons report back their data, the intensity and final direction of the Sandy will all depend on a "deepening upper level low pressure system" (according to the our regional National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlook), which will not necessarily be known until several days from now if not later.

Hence the reason why this is all speculation at this point.

[Remember585 815]

Rain, no rain - I don't care - I will be OFF for this one!

[x129K 1,393]

Awesome. Mother nature screwing up bow season for the second year in a row....as if it already hasnt rained on ALL of my days off so far this month.....

[bfd34180 11]

here is a link to NOAA's models for sandy http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents so far it shows monday 8 pm to be just off the coast but thats likely to change in the coming days.

[SECTMB 612]

We're starting to feel the effects of Sandy now, light breezes expected to increase as the day goes on and get sustained to around 30 mph with gusts in 40 mph range. Some rain with it but nothing like Isaac that flooded us out.

Palm Beach County schools closing 3 hours early today and closed tomorrow as a precaution.

It's staying far enough off shore and not big (wide) enough to do us any damage, just some inconvenience.

[eric12401 77]

The latest track;

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day#contents

[JM15 386]

Well thats no bueno... From what I've been seeing they are expecting a Northern NJ or NYC landfall point for the hurricane/blizzard thingy

[SageVigiles 1,194]

Snowicane?

[xfirefighter484x 234]

Just one of several models, this one from NOAA. I get most of my updates from a great local source:

https://www.facebook.com/HVWX1

[peterose313 345]

Jim Cantore: "I never thought I would see another Super Outbreak after 1974. It happened. I never thought I'd see another Perfect Storm. Its happening."